Spring is now 3 weeks old and much seems to have changed from winter. For me the seasons are 13 weeks long centred on the quarter days of the year. So on the 7th February the sun actually is closer to the spring equinox than the winter solstice, so the season changes.

After a dry January the relentless rains have continued. There are some interesting little facts that contribute to this. For every 1C warmer the atmosphere is, it’s ability to hold moisture increases by 7%. If an airmass is 4C warmer then it holds up to 30% more water. Climate change is kicking in and we often see unseasonable hot weather. In my opinion this undoubtedly leads to the intensity of the rainfall that we have seen over the past 5 months. The land is truly saturated and the water struggles to percolate through. This means the water runs off quickly into the water courses and causes flooding of the rivers. In my local town, St Neots, the river Gt Ouse has burst its bank 3 times in the past month, leading to lengthy road closures at 1 of the 3 crossing points and total traffic chaos as drivers have to find alternate routes. On one occasion the road surface was washed away to expose the original cobbles beneath.

But, that aside. I did actually manage to drill a very small area of winter oats during the dry interlude in January. A couple more days of drying would have given me the opportunity to drill spring barley and spring oats. But that plan was foiled. It was lucky that I did drill the oats in preference to going fertiliser spreading, as had I done the latter task I would have seen my investment washed into the rivers and sea.

I spent 10 days away from the farm and the crops coped well without me. They all grew nicely, benefiting from the longer days, the stronger sunshine and the even higher temperatures of the spring.

Back to the rain and the prospects of the coming growing and harvest season. Wet soil limits the ability of the plant to root well in the soil. We really do need a break in the weather. However, there factors that influence our climate do not seem to indicate this. The sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Atlantic are at never recorded levels. In February they are 1.5C higher than the long term average. That warm sea powers the temperature of the atmosphere and the amount of water that it can hold. This would suggest a continuation of the rain. The warm sea and air is caught in both the jet stream and the Gulf Stream and brought across the Atlantic to our shores. However, one indicator seems that it might work in our favour. This is La Niña, the east/west ocean current in the Pacific. It seems that La Niña might return in the coming months, which would help to draw that moisture across Central America rather than it swinging up into our latitudes. So, I think we have 2 possible outcomes. A wetter harvest than last year or one similar to last year.



Back to farming. After a long term break from cropping, I am drilling winter oats in a field that has had a grass/clover mix on it for the past 5 years. In some ways I regret doing this as the clover had such a huge environmental benefit, but I wished to experiment to see what happens when you bring a field back into production after a long term break.